The war in Iran casts Swedish NATO membership in a new light

The war in Iran is slowly but surely creeping closer to Europe. An English airbase in Cyprus has been attacked by Iran. The question is what happens if Iran launches a ballistic missile at Ramstein in Germany, the USA's largest airbase in Europe? Germany could then invoke Article 5, which states that an attack on one NATO country is also an attack on all member countries of the organisation.

Given Sweden's ambition to always be ”best in class”, it is not entirely unthinkable that selected Swedish units would be dispatched to the conflict zone in this situation. Suddenly, Sweden is involved in a world war.

Government Bill 2025/26:6 is a clear decision-making framework for NATO's collective deterrence and defence activities, which the Riksdag voted through last autumn and which came into effect on 1 December 2025, making it now easier to deploy Swedish military forces, with no further approval needed from the Riksdag.

The government may deploy Swedish armed forces within the framework of NATO's deterrence and defence in the event of an armed attack against a NATO ally. Furthermore, there is the possibility of further deployment of a limited-sized armed force for a limited period if a delay would cause considerable detriment to pressing Swedish interests or if the need arises at short notice.

This means that in urgent and unforeseen situations, the government can decide on a limited deployment without prior parliamentary approval.

There is no requirement for a ceasefire or peace settlement for a military operation within the framework of NATO's deterrence and defence activities to be realised.

Two hundred years of successful non-alignment are now a thing of the past.

The war in Iran is about what?

The media are discussing various reasons for what led to the war in Iran, where the US chose to attack the country. It has been about Iran's uranium enrichment, the abhorrent and misogynistic regime, or Israel's dreams of ”Greater Israel. America's will to safeguard the petrodollar is rarely mentioned as a reason for the attacks, but as long as oil is only traded in dollars, America can finance its enormous national debt.

Almost all countries that trade oil require vast amounts of US dollars, and the US can therefore get a market for its government bonds to finance its rapidly growing national debt. Should the petrodollar fall, meaning an increasing number of countries stop trading oil in dollars, US public finances risk being significantly weakened.

Experts today point to recurring patterns. The countries that the USA attacks have in common that they have not wanted to align themselves with the petrodollar system, but instead have chosen to sell their oil in other currencies. This happened in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and most recently in Venezuela. The oppressive regime in Iran has also not wanted to align itself with the petrodollar system.

Who started the war in Iran?

The negotiations concerning Iran's nuclear activities, which took place around the time of the US attack a couple of weeks ago, progressed positively, with Iran, according to former CIA analyst Larry Johnson among others, not opposing the key points.

Iran was attacked by the USA during ongoing negotiations, which also happened during the ”Twelve-Day War” in 2025. This time, Iran was attacked by a massive air raid which, among other things, killed Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei and the country's highest military and political leadership. This war of aggression has met with strong protests around the world and not least within the USA, where only one in four Americans support the war.

The decision to start the war also did not follow the US constitution's order, which stipulates that only Congress can declare war. In this case, it was Trump himself who ordered the attacks. Bill Clinton has expressed himself very critically about the constitution being overridden, but also Norway's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bert Eide, sharply criticises the US and Israel's decision to attack Iran when interviewed on SVT, 30 minutes: ”disliking a regime is not enough,” he says.

Could Iran be bombed into submission?

Beyond provoking a regime change in Iran, the US and Israel's strategy with the war is unclear. Whether the plan, whatever it may be, will succeed remains to be seen, but the death toll among innocent people will likely be in the hundreds of thousands and the desire to acquire nuclear weapons will rather increase, as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is said to have been against nuclear weapons.

The new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has seen his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei murdered by the USA, as well as his wife, son, daughter, and mother. The regime in Iran developing in a more democratic direction whilst fighting for its survival does not currently feel realistic.

What does the Iranian resistance look like?

Until today, Iran has defended itself against Israel and most US bases in the region with drone and missile attacks. All countries that have long been under US protection in the region are now also being attacked by Iran.

It is not only US bases that have been attacked, but also oil infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar. Iran has also closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil previously passed and the bulk of food supplies to the Gulf states entered.

Iran also possesses hypersonic missiles that pose a significant threat to US warships in the area. Aircraft carriers, which are the backbone of the US war machine, are of particular concern.

Can the US presence in the area be questioned?

A significant number of Iran's drones and missiles have penetrated Israel's and the USA's air defence, leading to extensive damage and even the deaths of Americans and Israelis.

The American presence has led to several countries in the region that are currently under American protection now being involuntarily attacked and drawn into the war.

It is therefore not impossible that the war could lead to major changes in the US presence in the region, where the US finds it increasingly difficult to convince the Gulf states why they should be under American protection.

Will Sweden be safer with an American presence on Swedish bases?

The war now casts a completely new light on Sweden's NATO membership. How much can we rely on US protection? Is there a risk that things will go for Sweden as they did for the Gulf states, when these states are now being bombed as a direct consequence of the US using their territory for its war of aggression against Iran?

The current and previous Swedish governments have acted in a way that maximises the risk of war for the Swedish population. Sweden has joined NATO and entered into a DCA agreement with the USA, which, similarly to the Gulf states, grants the USA access to our military bases and training areas.

Sweden has been one of the most ardent cheerleaders of the Ukraine war, and Defence Minister Pål Jonson and the government have allowed Swedish territory to be used as a staging area for NATO troops in a potential war against Russia. A liaison staff, NATO Force Integration Unit (NFIU) has been established in Enköping.

The government's and parliament's foremost task is to ensure the security of their own population. Here, the government and parliament receive the worst possible rating as they are now on the verge of dragging the country into a deadly world war.

Elsa Widding and Ulf Gabrielsson | Image: Official inauguration with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever, Belgian Defence Minister Theo Francken, and Belgian Deputy Prime Minister David Clarinval | Pressphoto: NATO.int