Ukraine and Europe's prosperity are lost

Below is a post by Ulf Gabrielsson (A), former fighter pilot in the Swedish Armed Forces and captain in civil aviation.

Imagine that a doctor makes a wrong diagnosis. Instead of understanding the real causes of the disease, he puts in place a powerful treatment - a treatment that makes the condition worse, weakens the patient and may even lead to death. This is exactly what is now happening to Ukraine and Europe: a misdiagnosis has led to a treatment that has not only cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of young Ukrainians, but is now threatening Europe's economy and prosperity.

The dominant narrative in the West has been clear: Vladimir Putin is the Hitler of our time. He has launched an unprovoked war of aggression, planning to re-establish the Soviet Union with the ambition to take country after country in Europe.

The diagnosis became an existential threat - the treatment: full militarisation of Ukraine, a massive influx of arms, ammunition and money, and a rhetoric that silences or discredits anyone with a nuanced view of the war.

But what has this treatment led to? Hundreds of thousands of dead Ukrainian soldiers, millions of refugees, a country in ruins - and now a Europe that is spending hundreds of billions of euros on military armament. Countries like Germany, Sweden, France and Poland are shifting resources from healthcare, education and other public services to artillery, fighter jets and mortars. With rising interest rates and squeezed state budgets, the price is huge for Sweden and other European countries that put in this wrong ”treatment”.

What if the diagnosis was in fact wrong?

An alternative diagnosis: geopolitical conflict - not imperialist conquest

If we instead interpret Russia's actions as an attempt to protect the Russian-speaking population in eastern Ukraine, prevent Ukraine from becoming a NATO bastion with US missile bases aimed at Moscow, and safeguard its security zone - then the treatment looks completely different. In that case, Putin is not after Sweden or the Baltics, but after strategic balance. In that case, a diplomatic solution could have been possible before the outbreak of war. Ukraine could have been declared a neutral country - something like the Austrian model - and a large-scale conflict might never have broken out.

BRICS - evidence of a different world order

Russia, together with China, India, Brazil, South Africa and others, is now building the BRICS - a co-operation of sovereign states that want to create a multipolar world where one power (the US) does not dictate the terms to everyone else. This is hardly a structure that an imperialist conqueror invests time in. Isn't it rather a sign that Russia - rightly or wrongly - sees itself as a power that wants to participate in a new global co-operation? How does one even come to the conclusion that Russia wants to dominate Europe?

Malpractice must be stopped

We must now recognise that the approach chosen by the US and NATO - mass militarisation, prolonged war and armament hysteria - risks destroying Europe's prosperity and future. This is in no way a defence of Russia's actions, but rather a recognition that we have failed to understand the conflict. No one gains from a war that could have been avoided. Now Ukraine is paying with its blood - and we in Europe with our future.

Source: Benjamin Abelow ”How the West brought war to Ukraine”